Executive Director John Pudner spent the moring on multiple Fox News radio interviews regarding the truth about the vote-counting process and eventual winners. The projection email I sent you Election Day morning (below) and the prediction email from last week proved to be extremely accurate as the count continues to play out. I refuted the media and polling predictions of a blowout for Biden and the Democrats and correctly forecast a close Biden win BUT Republican control of the Senate, baring the Democrats winning both special elections in Georgia, or the Trump legal team finding a true legal path to overcome losses in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Few know voter fraud better than me, as I am one of the few who actually has been an election observer and thrown out ballots in a counting room (people we knew had moved, did not sign their outside envelope on their mail-in ballot etc.), and can tell you contrary to media criticism, President Trump is correct to put a spotlight on the cases in Philadelphia and Detroit where observers we not allowed to be close enough to observe ballots. However, from experience I know you only throw out 1% or less of illegally cast ballots when doing this process, so even if Republican observers had been allowed access to observe another 100,000 ballot envelopes in both PA and MI, they might have thrown out 1,000 votes – not nearly enough to make up their deficit in either state.
I know several key players in Trump’s current effort, including his communications team and Harmeet Dhillon who is one of the best lawyers in the country. They will certainly turn over every rock to find any other irregularities that merit a court case, but it is very difficult at this stage to undo votes because now the ballots have now been separated from the envelopes showing who cast each ballot and run through the machine. Even if a bogus voter is detected at this stage, you no longer know which ballot to throw out so the vote would unfortunately stand. However, with the White House on the line it is worth reviewing everything, and it is important that some of the practices that prevent observation are exposed so they can better be stopped in future elections. Below are the stations on which I will be interviewed today, followed by a forward of the election day email you received.
In particular I’d ask you to listen to the replay of this interview this morning Bill Edwards in Savannah. Bill said Georgia needed to shorten their run-off period rather than make the voters go through another 9 weeks of commercials now for two Senate races, and I pointed out we could do better and go to an instant runoff system in which people simply list their second and third choice when the vote the first time. If that were in place this year, Georgia would now have two Republican Senators rather than be preparing for two nasty Senate runoffs, and President Trump would have won Wisconsin due to many libertarian voters listing him as a second choice to eliminate the spoiler Libertarian nominee who cost him that state. Instant runoffs make sense, and this election proved we need them everywhere. – John Pudner 404.606.3163
KARN Little Rock, AR 0710AM ET
WTKS Savannah, GA 0724AM ET
WMBD Peoria, IL 0745AM ET
WSJK Champaign, IL 0807AM ET
WFLA Tampa, FL 0820AM ET
WERC Birmingham, AL 0850AM ET
WILS Lansing, MI 0905AM ET KURV
McAllen, TX 0912AM ET
WFRK Florence, SC 0930AM ET
KOGO San Diego, CA 0939AM ET
KBIZ Ottumwa, IA 0948AM ET
KID Idaho Falls, ID 1030AM ET
ELECTION MORNING EMAIL
Based on the number of Democrats and Republicans who voted early in Pennsylvania, Republicans likely need to win in-person voting in the state today by at least a million votes for Donald Trump to become President. If overall turnout is the same as 2016, that means Trump needs to win 2.3 million to 1.3 million votes or 64% of today’s vote. If overall turnout is 20% higher than the 2016 turnout then Trump would just need to win 60% of today’s vote, etc. The fact that ballots will still be arriving and being counted for a few more days could mean Trump needs to add a little bit to those totals.
This is within the range of his expectations in my breakdown in the Hill, which laid out that if Republicans and Democrats vote when they tell pollsters they will vote (early or election day) then Democrats would win early voting about 2-to-1 and Republicans would win election day 2-to-1. I concluded in the Hill piece that Democrats had not rolled up the early voting margins they needed to put the election away, and this current breakdown in Pennsylvania indicates Democrats still did not put the election away even in Pennsylvania, which looked like their best of four states in the breakdown in the Hill.
If close, it may take a while or even days to count Pennsylvania, so the early warning state to watch tonight is North Carolina. Based on the early voting turnout model, it is likely:
1. If North Carolina is called for Biden and the Democratic Senate candidate Cunningham tonight, then it’s pretty certain Democrats will win the Senate and get at least a fairly lopsided Biden win, whether or not it approaches the 351-187 win if Nate Silver’s favorite won in every state.
2. If North Carolina truly appears too close to call or even within a point, then it is very likely Trump has lost the electoral college but the Senate would likely stay Republican (the GOP is slightly more likely to win in Maine and Iowa then to win in North Carolina, and if they win two of the three they likely win 51-49).
3. If North Carolina is called for Trump and the Republican candidate Tillis, then the GOP almost certainly holds the Senate and Trump has a chance – needing to win either Pennsylvania or Nevada to remain President.
In summary, North Carolina should be the first to tell you who will control the White House and Senate, but if Trump wins North Carolina you will still need to wait to see if he wins either Pennsylvania or Nevada to get to 270 and be re-elected.
Of course there are less likely but possible scenarios. Trump needs to sweep the four states where Nate Silver has him as a slight underdog – Georgia, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina – to have a chance, but if it is clear that he has won North Carolina by tonight then he probably won all four and just needs to add Pennsylvania or Nevada. If Biden loses those four but wins Pennsylvania and Nevada, he could still lose in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, but those states should be stronger for him then Pennsylvania so it is less likely he wins any of the Upper Midwest if he does not hold Pennsylvania.
I’ve written separately this week on my personal strong preference for who I want to win, and separately who I believe will win – and the hard part is that I don’t believe my candidate will win. However, the early voting breakdown and the fact that none of us have ever been through this voting model certainly leaves the door open that the polls could be more than the 1% overall they were off in 2016 and result in the pollsters being wrong. Until we see real numbers out of North Carolina tonight, we can analyze but we are all still guessing at too many variables to know for sure if independent white women and seniors really have abandoned Trump or just become too scared the would be shamed if admitting they had voted for him.